Is writing old school?
Are books in secular decline in a world of You Tube and Tik-Tok?
Is there even a future for writers when AI is rapidly ingesting and constantly improving on all that has been written and can generate not just books from words but also create stunning images and incredible video?
Will authors disappear like the scribes who inscribed on tablets and the scroll copiers of the past?
Josh Bernoff is known to many for his role at Forrester where he was a Senior Vice President, spending 20 years analyzing technology and business. Prior to Forrester, Josh spent 14 years in start-up companies. Josh has a mathematics degree from The Pennsylvania State University and has studied mathematics in the Ph.D. program at MIT.
For nearly a decade Josh has focussed on writing. He has authored, co-authored or ghost written 8 books. Josh now works closely with nonfiction authors as an advisor, coach, editor, or ghostwriter collaborating on more than 50 nonfiction books.
As a mathematician and a person deeply familiar with technology and its impact on marketing and business who is also now deeply learned about the world of books and writing, Josh joined me (another mathematician with some marketing experience who is writing his second book) to discuss AI and the future of creativity and much more. We discuss how human intelligence and artificial intelligence will impact each other.
It is a conversation relevant to all individuals even if they are not interested in writing or creativity or technology since the world of AI is going to impact every job and industry and our discussion spans everything from how to leverage and ignite human inspiration in this new age to why it is key to be paranoid early and much more.
You can listen to the less than 40 minute conversation ( no ads, no promotions, tightly edited to maximize insights per minute) on any podcast platform or click below to hear it on Spotify or Apple (end of post). A few points from our discussion is the focus of this weeks post.
Will AI replace writers?
AI will replace many writers.
The hack writers.
It will not replace writers who have wit which is some combination of insight, humor, emotion and surprise who focus on communing and connecting with human minds and emotions.
In fact, the best writers today use AI as an input to power, expand and challenge themselves in ways that improve their writing and expand their thinking. AI expands the palette and opens new horizons rather than eliminate and shrink the future.
This is because writing is about feeling and connection and not just words and information.
As long as writing addresses human issues of identity, journey, conflict, searching for self and growth versus just being about sharing data correctly spelled and edited there will be a role for writers and writing.
Creativity is not just about connecting the dots but connecting dots in new ways with a unique voice and some combination of forward thinking perspectives, provocations, and points of view.
Right now GPT-4 (I used the upgraded Chat GPT) seems to agree in part with Josh and my perspective. (Notice it believes we will not COMPLETELY be replaced but some replacement is indeed expected.)
Rishad Tobaccowala to GPT 4 :When will AI replace writers?
GPT 4: The notion of AI replacing writers entirely is a complex and speculative topic. As of now, and likely for the foreseeable future, AI is not poised to completely replace human writers for several reasons:
Creativity and Originality: AI excels at processing and generating content based on existing data, but it lacks the ability to truly create something original and unique that stems from personal human experiences, emotions, and perspectives.
Emotional Depth and Nuance: While AI can mimic certain styles and emotional tones, it doesn't actually experience emotions and therefore cannot fully replicate the depth and subtlety of human emotional expression in writing.
Cultural and Contextual Sensitivity: Human writers understand their cultural context and can adapt their writing to be sensitive to societal norms, subtle language nuances, and regional idioms. AI, though improving, often struggles with these aspects.
Moral and Ethical Judgment: Writing often involves making nuanced moral and ethical judgments. AI does not possess the intrinsic moral compass or the understanding of complex ethical considerations that humans do.
Audience Engagement: Human writers can engage with their audience, understand feedback, and adapt their writing in ways that are personally relatable. AI lacks this level of interactive and empathetic understanding.
Creative Collaboration and Interpretation: Writers often collaborate with others, drawing on shared ideas and interpreting feedback. AI does not have the capability for this type of creative and interpretive interaction.
While AI will continue to become a more powerful tool for assisting writers in tasks like research, language correction, generating ideas, or even drafting content, it's unlikely to replace the unique creative and emotional aspects that human writers bring. The future will likely see a collaboration between AI and human creativity, rather than a replacement.
(As I just collaborated with AI to write the section above and create the image of the scroll writer and modern tablet at the top of the post and robot and the lady later in the post).
Human curation and direct relationships between writers and their readers are key to the future of many authors.
Hundreds of thousands of books on Amazon are now fake books written by AI with authors names similar or identical to other authors. All the books in the image above are among tens of thousands if not hundreds of thousands of AI generated books.
From the New York Times article that found thousands of fake books in just the travel section:
“The books are the result of a swirling mix of modern tools: A.I. apps that can produce text and fake portraits; websites with a seemingly endless array of stock photos and graphics; self-publishing platforms — like Amazon’s Kindle Direct Publishing — with few guardrails against the use of A.I.; and the ability to solicit, purchase and post phony online reviews, which runs counter to Amazon’s policies and may soon face increased regulation from the Federal Trade Commission.
The use of these tools in tandem has allowed the books to rise near the top of Amazon search results and sometimes garner Amazon endorsements such as “#1 Travel Guide on Alaska.”
In a gushing Niagara of content created by AI which is optimized using data to create and non transparent algorithms to distribute, real people are likely to turn to analog humans to help them distill and curate a little stream of engaging content they may find tasteful.
The future of discovery and curation might increasingly be human BUT also it will be key for many writers to have a direct relationship with their readers ( Just as all sorts of businesses and marketers today do not want to be near crap and want to build a direct relationship with their customers vs renting access from platforms)
Josh discusses how Authors are not being helped by Amazon and others middlemen and it will key for creators to have a direct relationship and ownership. All the content and the email list of people who publish on Substack like this newsletter for instance is owned by the creator and can be moved anywhere.
Be paranoid early and learn how to work with AI.
Josh warns us all not to be comfortable and keep learning as he learned Social Media in his 40’s to co-author Groundswell and how he continues today to learn about AI.
We should never believe we are too senior or too old for the gusts of change not to impact us in the next few months or that this can be delegated away to other folks or just be handled only by getting consultants to write a action plan.
The new technologies are not just like Photoshop and other tech but is likely to be more fundamental and existential.
Josh discusses why the recent settled strike by writers and actors focused so much on A and why though AI might not replace many jobs it will impact and change nearly every white collar job.
It is essential that everyone today embrace ( learn and use AI tools), adapt ( understand how their job and company processes will need to change) and complement (determine how AI and Human Inspiration can augment each other )
Here is how to remain relevant in an AI age.
And do listen to entire conversation between Josh and me for much more below (or above)
Rishad Tobaccowala helps companies, teams and leaders grow by helping them see, think and feel differently. Forty years of experience delivered through writing, speaking and advising in ways that are actionable and inspirational. For more about Rishad Tobaccowala click here.
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